Trump is in denial about North Korea
ATLANTA â" No one yet knows what deals U.S. President Donald Trump may have struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their private two-hour meeting in Helsinki. But it is already clear that Trumpâs self-congratulations for striking a deal to âdenuclearizeâ the Korean Peninsula during his Singapore summit with Kim Jong Un are ringing hollow. In addition to backsliding in its working-level negotiations with the United States, the Kim regime has continued to solidify its position as a nuclear-wea pons state. The master of the Kremlin is sure to have taken note of this.
North Korea specialists have long been skeptical that Kim would ever give up his nuclear arsenal, and recent evidence supports their judgment. Reports citing U.S. intelligence officials indicate that the North is pressing ahead with its nuclear weapons program, by ramping up missile and enriched-uranium production and concealing the size of its nuclear inventory.
Anyone who has followed affairs on the Korean Peninsula has seen this movie before. After all, Kimâs father and grandfather wrote the script decades ago. Since the 1970s, the Kim regime has repeatedly expressed its desire for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, signed nonproliferation agreements and negotiated with the U.S. and South Korea â" all while pursuing its nuclear weapons program. In this latest rerun, Kim has even reused his fatherâs special effects. In May, he blew up a nuclear test site with the same cinematic flair that Kim Jong Il displayed when he dynamited a nuclear reactorâs cooling tower 10 years ago.
Compared with Kimâs well-rehearsed theatrics, the Trump administrationâs performance has been a flop. After threatening North Korea with total destruction last year, Trump made a major concession to Kim by agreeing to attend the summit in June. While there, he demonstrated that neither he nor his administration had a strategy for getting Kim to make good on any deal. Making matters worse, Trump has continued to insist that follow-up talks with the North are âgoing well,â even though U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeoâs latest visit to Pyongyang ended with a round of mutual recrimination.
Behind the crumbling facade of Trumpâs misrepresentations is an administration that remains divided on its primary policy goals. In light of the intelligence communityâs latest assessment about the Northâs continued enrichment activities, those divisions are likely to have deepened. Fo r his part, Pompeo has already backpedaled on earlier U.S. demands, by softening his language on the fraught issue of inspections and verification. And U.S. officials have hinted that a further softening in the administrationâs position is on the way.
Meanwhile, other White House officials have taken a harder line. Trumpâs national security adviser, John Bolton, has called for not only denuclearization but also rapid disarmament of all of North Koreaâs unconventional weapons. This month, Bolton even claimed to have a plan for dismantling all of North Koreaâs nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs within a year.
Trump prefers top-down decision-making, so it remains to be seen how he will respond to intelligence reports about the Northâs duplicity. At any rate, now that the U.S. has shared its intelligence with Japan, South Korea and other allies, political leaders and military officials in those countries have reason to be anxious. For Japan and South Korea, in particular, the contradictions between Trumpâs rhetoric and his own intelligence servicesâ findings are becoming a source of serious concern.
Equally worrying is Trumpâs unpredictable behavior toward U.S. allies. Officials in Tokyo and Seoul closely followed Trumpâs blustering appearance at a NATO meeting this month because they too have been on the receiving end of his attacks over military spending. Trump has pushed both governments to boost their military budgets, and he has long mused about withdrawing U.S. forces from South Korea. At the Singapore summit he even agreed to suspend U.S. military exercises with South Korea â" another major concession to the North â" further unsettling Americaâs Asian allies.
Trumpâs silence on the latest North Korea intelligence â" to say nothing of his siding with Russian President Vladimir Putin over his own intelligence agencies on charges of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election â" will further deepe n alliesâ anxieties. Ignoring North Koreaâs deceptions directly undermines the security of Japan and South Korea. Though the Kim regime is still working toward nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the continental U.S., it already has fully operational medium-range missiles that can strike its neighbors. And, because Japan and South Korea both host U.S. military bases, they are at the top of the Northâs nuclear target list.
Trump may not like it, but he must call out Kimâs duplicity, especially given the latest intelligence. Among other things, the North is accelerating production of solid-fuel rocket engines and an ICBM-armed submarine. Both technologies would bolster the Northâs ability to launch a surprise attack, by making its nuclear arsenal more durable, mobile and easily concealed. The Kim regimeâs ongoing efforts in this area make clear that it has no intention of scrapping its nuclear program.
White House officials are now suggesting that Trump could use the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September to hold another meeting with Kim, as if rekindling the two leadersâ âbromanceâ will lead to serious negotiations. It wonât. Instead, Trump needs to put substance before spectacle, above all by confronting Kim with the latest intelligence findings. Platitudes about denuclearization are one thing; serious arms control efforts to reduce the risks on the Korean Peninsula are quite another. The Trump administration must think very carefully about its next steps.
Kent Harrington, a former senior CIA analyst, served as national intelligence officer for East Asia, chief of station in Asia, and the CIAâs director of public affairs. Â© Project Syndicate, 2018
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